Manifesto Of The Death Of Big Software: How Apple’s iPad Really Killed Microsoft’s Core Business

Major Nelson released a blog post about the explosive growth of Xbox as a result of the Kinect. Most of the media and analysts missed that this is not just a story about not just Xbox, but any technology that is a game changer.

Wii’s success was born from originality.  It was the first to do a thing, but it was short lived, and as soon as Microsoft was able to out Motion Controller it at its own game sales of Wii plummeted fifa 20 ultimate edition.

Apple’s sales numbers for iPad look like those of the Wii, and Android Tabs have similar numbers to that of the other consoles. Wii had a spike and crash, rather than the "long arch" that the other consoles had.

How Apple's iPad Really Killed Microsoft's Core Business

As Larry point’s out on his blog it is the introduction of a new "killer feature" that changed the shape of the curve.  There are other things of course that can buy a product a few months of increased sales.  A big exclusive game, a price drop, or a lucky break in the service of a competitor can be good for business (Play Station Network’s recent downtime).  But what really makes a difference is the release of a killer feature antivirus gratis downloaden.

Kinect drove huge interest in Xbox.

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The flag marked "F" on this chart from Google Trends shows when the Kinect was released and how it drove interest, but more importantly how it dropped the interest in Wii.

Apple is well aware of these curves.  Apple has been balancing the price, and feature modifiers to the sales curve with amazing skill, but they won’t be able to do this endlessly.  I half expected this to have happened by now.  4G tablets don’t seem to make a dent in the iPad numbers, Microsoft can’t seem to get any of its partners to make a tablet that can compete, despite a Windows Tablet being a "real" computer and a lot more hardware for the money, Apple continues to trounce the market with better looking, better feeling hardware.  Eventually however someone will figure out what that killer feature is.  If not the game will become one of price and "generation" bus simulator 18 kostenlosen.

Unlike consoles what people expect that new ones will do more than the previous ones Apple isn’t really adding huge new features with each generation, just "accessories" that are part of the bundle.  While a front facing camera and GPS add to the functionality, but what new tricks can Apple add next? The limitations in what apple can do and still have full backwards (and forwards) compatibility is coming to an end.  When this happens the game changes.  Apple will have to start competing on software rather than hardware.  As Android gains installs and continues to demonstrate better profitability for software developers the game starts to change whatsapp herunterladen windows.

Apple is dominating in the tablet space, but it does so at the expense of all other "portable computing devices" and at the software market in general.  A consumer won’t buy a $300 iPad app, nor will the 30% commission on the sales of apps from the Apple Store keep Apple going when they reach the point that hardware becomes a commodity again.

This was the story learned by Dell, and Gateway, (even Apple long ago). Hardware markets go through cycles of feature growth to price reduction.  CPUs aren’t getting faster robot karol download kostenlos mac. Portable CPUs aren’t the limiting factor in battery life.  Users can’t decide if they want a 5, 7, 10, or 12 inch screen. Users want one device to be a computer, phone, camera, and game device, and that means one device can’t be everything to all users. Apple’s days of one model for everyone are numbered. I don’t think they can play in world where 100 other devices can be "perfect" for their user eurosport player downloaden.

I wouldn’t short Apple Stock just yet, but I might consider shorting Microsoft’s.

Windows 8 is coming soon. Are you excited? Is anyone? It’s big software it is expensive, and in the new economy of disposable hardware that we replace every 18 months instead of every 3 years, (or the 5 the IRS would say you depreciate a computer over) who is going to buy a $200 OS instead of a $200 device strato ssl certificaat? Office is being replaced by apps that cost a dollar.  Even Google Docs Pricing is beyond the new thresh hold of pain. Ads don’t pay the bills, you can’t build a monolithic software with teams of 1000 people you now have to build an agile app on a shoe string budget to reach profitability.  I buy a $50 Xbox title every 2 weeks with out hesitation, but won’t spend $5 for an App to scan business cards, let alone a $50 app to manage CRM, or Tasks, or Productivity. 

That’s where the technology economy is going to hell. It is all to cheap, and the crash is coming.  Users demand that enterprise lets them use their personal device, but doesn’t create a system to enable deployment of core productivity software on to those devices.  The savings of hardware is coming at the cost of administration, and interoptability.  Soon the work place will be over run with "connected devices" that don’t connect.  Working hard is going away.  No one works at a desk with amber lit forms powered by an AS/400 or System 36 any more, they fill out forms on a web device in the cloud where only enterprise can play srf broadcast.

Microsoft sees this, and is moving people to Azure, Google sees this and is pushing AppEngine, but what will either of these Behemoths do if the future is written on Open Platforms powered by commodity hardware? Dell and HP could be the new WinTel, or the current Apple.  The market is changing. Good bad or indifferent, Apple’s larger than life lead is likely to be short lived, and I don’t see Microsoft winning the race in the clouds.  Google’s AppEngine is cool, and I love it, but the market doesn’t trust them.  They are big brother in a way that Microsoft only ever dreamed about google sketchup 8 gratis downloaden.

Amazon doesn’t know what it wants to be when it grows up, and with out the strength of it’s early leaders it doesn’t have the chops to step in as the new market leader.

So who do I think will win? HP.  It has been making all the right moves of late.  It sees the play in the consumer space as a Tablet, and it’s purchase of Palm gives it some interesting resources for touch devices.  It stands to do well in the enterprise cloud market, and it is no stranger to the desktop and PC market.  With all the parts necessary to win in which ever market becomes the big winner, HP is a strong bet.  They will have to make use of those Palm bits to make a user experience that is the reason to pick their hardware over a competitors, and they will have to build the tools to make themselves the defacto standard for the hardware behind the cloud, but they have the pieces if they don’t screw it up downloading whatsapp images is not possible.

If Microsoft would wake up and jump full on into the hardware business, I’d bet on them, but only if they fixed their marketing department.  Microsoft can’ get things off the ground because they suck at selling, and they trust their partners with too much of their fate. 

Apple has the least ability to come out of these changes in a strong position. They have always failed at enterprise and I don’t see that changing.  Steve Jobs is only capable of shaping that which is tangible.  That was always Apple’s biggest failing. Building the backend to make everything run smoothly and enabling admins to have rules to keep users safe is not what Apple does, and that will keep them from being what they could be.

It’s a good time to be an big company, because we stand on the edge of a major change. A change where some of the players will cease to exist.